#295
Stormy Weather In BankVille

Published:

Jul 13, 2019


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Published:

Jul 13, 2019


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Despite fresh all time highs in the stock market on Friday, the big banks aren’t emerging from clouds that have lingered over the industry since the financial crisis.

Though the broader market trades at 18x earnings, JP Morgan and HSBC are trading at 12x, Bank of America at 11x, and Goldman at 9x. With an average earnings multiple around 10x, the banks are now valued at the steepest discount to the market recorded in more than four decades.

Investors are clearly worried about the sector’s profitability and growth. And last week, the storm grew stronger as Deutsche Bank cut 18k jobs in an effort to slash their cost structure by 25%.

So, why exactly have the clouds lingered in Bankville despite the longest bull-run in recent history?

One key driver is the narrowing spread, and more recent “inversion,” in short-term versus long-term interest rates. Core to the banking business model is paying out short-term rates on deposits while raking in longer-term rates on loans. With little or negative spread, the banks profit margins get squeezed.

As a result, banks appear to be heightening their focus on fee-based revenue. This includes wealth management (which Deutsche is now refocusing on), as well as home financings. According to Goldman, mortgage rates are now low enough that 45% of homeowners may be eligible to refinance - which could be a boon for leaders such as Wells Fargo.

Despite these reasons for optimism, it's unclear the storm is going to STOP anytime soon.

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Stormy Weather in BankVille


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Select Financing


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